The federal Green party and the People’s Party of Canada say they will soon have candidates in all 14 Manitoba ridings, even as one political observer says they haven’t got a chance of winning a seat in the House of Commons.
“I think they are being squeezed out on a number of fronts,” said Chris Adams, a political studies professor at University of Manitoba.
As of last Friday, the Greens had two candidates in place while the PPC had 13 of the 14 electoral districts covered.
Adams said neither party should expect any of their candidates to be elected members of Parliament once the ballots are counted April 28. He said their raison d’etre won’t sell with voters in a race dominated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff war and annexation threat.
The Green Party’s main message has disappeared from public debate, he said.
“The whole issue of environment and climate change is being squeezed out right now,” Adams said.
“The Greens have been squeezed on both the issue of environmentalism as well as being a small party, when people are looking at nationalism.”
Adams said even in a riding such as Winnipeg Centre, which includes the Wolseley area — where their provincial leaders have run in the past and received significant support — chances are slim.
As for the PPC, Adams said he doesn’t see any chance of a breakthrough.
“Even in the places they have been the strongest, like Portage-Lisgar, they only got 17 per cent, and that was with their leader, Maxime Bernier,” he said.
“In (rural) Manitoba, the Conservative candidates speak very much like the PPC, so why would you vote for the PPC if they speak the same?”
Greens seeking signatures
With just two official candidates registered at the moment, Green hopefuls are out, knocking on doors to get the required 100 signatures submitted to Elections Canada by the April 7 deadline.
“I’m still looking for 150 signatures because, when Elections Canada goes through to make sure people who signed live in the riding,” said Blair Mahaffy, the Green candidate for Provencher in southeast Manitoba, “I don’t want to be surprised.”
Mahaffy said he’s finding people aren’t talking about the environment.
“It isn’t being talked about at all,” he said. “But, with the climate crisis, some day we will all be green.”
He doesn’t expect to win, but that’s not the point of running for the Greens, he said.
“I would love to get five per cent of the vote,” he said. “But I’m in Provencher. It is a solid Conservative riding, with Ted Falk as the incumbent.
“For me, it is about the message. It is giving people an alternative which is hopeful and inspiring. We challenge people and bring forward ideas. And, if our percentage goes up, the other parties look at our ideas and borrow them.
“As (co-Leader) Elizabeth May says, every time a major party steals one of our ideas we have won.”
“Do I believe I have a chance in this election? To be honest, no.”–PPC candidate Collin Watson
Collin Watson, the PPC candidate in Elmwood-Transcona, where the NDP’s Leila Dance is the incumbent, and Noel Gautron, the PPC candidate in Provencher, where Falk has won four consecutive elections for the Tories, have no expectations of victory.
“Do I believe I have a chance in this election? To be honest, no,” Watson said.
“Elmwood-Transcona is too far-left leaning to convert to a right-wing party in a few short years. It would require aggressive PPC campaigning while targeting the failures and shortcomings of the NDP and CPC to convince voters that voting for the same parties, expecting different results, will never result in promises being fulfilled.”
He hopes to best the Liberal party.
Watson said he is targeting the 40 per cent of registered voters who traditionally stay home.
For Gautron, it’s his third kick at the electoral can since he first ran in 2019.
“I would say it has gotten significantly more receptive since 2019,” he said.
“I will be surprised if, between us and the Conservative party, we don’t sweep up 60 to 65 per cent of the vote here… so there are only two possible outcomes for southern Manitoba. It is the Conservatives or us here. And incumbents have a very nice advantage, if we look at it from a historical basis, so I think that would be the more logical outcome. But time will tell.”
kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca
Kevin Rollason
Reporter
Kevin Rollason is a general assignment reporter at the Free Press. He graduated from Western University with a Masters of Journalism in 1985 and worked at the Winnipeg Sun until1988, when he joined the Free Press. He has served as the Free Press’s city hall and law courts reporter and has won several awards, including a National Newspaper Award. Read more about Kevin.
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